Eduardo AlencarPublic integrity, measured

Eduardo Alencar

Public integrity, measured.

I build the evidence infrastructure that shows whether public oversight actually works: 13,042 parliamentary request–response pairs scored for substantive engagement, 30,304 federal contracts screened for fraud risk. PhD in Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine. Senior Legislative Advisor at Brazil's Chamber of Deputies.

Brasília, Brazil · Open to relocate

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Evidence at working scale

Verified scale, not decorative numbers.

13,042request–reply pairs
30,304federal contracts
32automated tests
13official government plans

Conceptual flow: colours indicate analytical dimensions, not observed proportions.

01Collect
CompletenessObjectivityTimelinessEvidenceRisk signal

From oversight to evidence

How a public record becomes auditable evidence

Scroll through an evidence system built to preserve provenance, uncertainty and human judgment.

01

Collect

Public records arrive with source, date and denominator intact.

02

Extract

A reproducible pipeline turns dispersed files into comparable observations.

03

Evaluate

Each record is assessed across five explicit analytical dimensions.

04

Validate and act

Automated signals pass through quality gates and human review before supporting action.

Home

What I do

Integrity and procurement analytics. Latent Class Analysis and red-flag models that turn procurement microdata into audit priorities, distinguishing risk signals from evidence strength so that a flag never reads as a verdict.

Causal inference for institutional reform. Synthetic Control, Difference-in-Differences and Regression Discontinuity applied to anti-corruption reforms, governance indicators and development outcomes.

Oversight analytics. Text-as-data and LLM pipelines that measure whether the Executive branch substantively answers legislative oversight, rather than merely replying on time.

Governance systems. Strategy, instrumentation and monitoring routines that connect objectives to decisions in public organizations.

Core methods

Latent Class Analysis · Synthetic Control Method · Difference-in-Differences · Regression Discontinuity Design · Structural Equation Modeling · Text-as-data and structural topic modeling · Machine learning red flags

Tools: Python · Stata · R · Mplus · Power BI · Airtable · LLM/API workflows

Languages

Portuguese (native) · English (fluent) · Italian (fluent) · Spanish (intermediate)

Selected roles

  • Senior Legislative Advisor, Chamber of Deputies / National Congress, Brazil — 12/2024–present
  • Head of Technical Advisory and Executive Secretary of Ceadi, National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel) — 01/2024–10/2024
  • Chief of Strategic Management, Ministry of Infrastructure — 09/2022–02/2023
  • Chief of Governance, National Institute for Educational Studies and Research (Inep) — 07/2021–08/2022
  • Chief of Staff, Secretariat of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Council (CAMEX) — 09/2016–06/2017
  • Member of the Administration Board, Geological Survey of Brazil (CPRM) — 05/2016–07/2017
  • Advisor, Office of the Comptroller General (CGU) — 01/2015–01/2016

Recent

  • Nov 2026 — Two papers accepted for presentation at the American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, Chicago
  • Dec 2026 — Extended abstract accepted at the XIV CEFOR Research and Extension Conference, Chamber of Deputies
  • 2026 — Article in The White Collar Times, newsletter of the ASC Division of White-Collar and Corporate Crime
  • 2026 — Joined the Fraud Research Group, Aston University

Interactive portfolio

Explore the work by public problem

Choose an axis to see the problem, method and concrete output behind the work.

30,304federal contracts screenedIntegrity

Make procurement risk visible

Problem
How can oversight teams triage large portfolios without treating a risk flag as proof?
Method
Latent classes, reproducible indicators and explicit uncertainty controls.
Output
Radar Aberto and its human-verification trail.
Open related work →
13,042request–reply pairsOversight

Measure the quality of government replies

Problem
Do formal replies actually answer legislators’ questions?
Method
Text-as-data, five audit dimensions and human validation.
Output
An AI-assisted oversight audit system.
Open related work →
13official plans comparedGovernance

Test whether promises can be monitored

Problem
Do government plans define delivery, accountability and evidence?
Method
Document analysis with a transparent governance rubric.
Output
A public explorer and companion report.
Open related work →
SCMcounterfactual designEvaluation

Test whether a reform changed outcomes

Problem
What would plausibly have happened without the intervention?
Method
Synthetic Control Method and robustness checks.
Output
Peer-reviewed research on governance outcomes.
Open related work →

Career timeline

A career in public institutions

Month-accurate roles from 2003 to the present. Overlaps are real; education is shown separately.

200320062009201220152018202120242026

Professional experience

IpeaEconomic Consultant
AnatelEconomic Specialist +2
Presidency · SAEProject Manager +1
CGUAdvisor
Ministry of PlanningAdvisor
CPRMBoard Member
CAMEXChief of Staff
InepChief of Governance
Ministry of InfrastructureChief of Strategic Management
AnatelRegulation Specialist +2
Chamber of DeputiesSenior Legislative Advisor

Graduate education

FGVInternational Executive MBA
UC IrvineM.A. in Social Ecology
UC IrvinePh.D. in Social Ecology
200320062009201220152018202120242026
Select a bar to inspect that chapter of the trajectory.
View timeline as a table
InstitutionRoleStartEndContribution
IpeaEconomic ConsultantJan 2003Dec 2004Industrial-policy, trade and firm-level analysis.
AnatelEconomic SpecialistMay 2005Sep 2006Economic analysis of competition, ownership and mobile access.
AnatelAdvisorOct 2006Jul 2009Strategy, budgeting and performance systems for senior management.
AnatelTalent Development ManagerJun 2009Apr 2013Raised training-budget execution and expanded staff learning.
Presidency · SAEProject ManagerMay 2013Oct 2014Evidence on the middle class, employment and strategic public policy.
PresidencyAdvisorOct 2014Jan 2015Anti-corruption law regulation and center-of-government coordination.
CGUAdvisorJan 2015Jan 2016Anti-corruption, governance and international-convention monitoring.
Ministry of PlanningAdvisorJan 2016Sep 2016Strategic-management systems and cross-government coordination.
CPRMBoard MemberApr 2016Jul 2017Board-level governance, integrity and budget oversight.
CAMEXChief of StaffSep 2016Jun 2017Foreign-trade council operations, deliberations and digital reform.
InepChief of GovernanceJul 2021Aug 2022Governance, data protection and institutional-capacity initiatives.
Ministry of InfrastructureChief of Strategic ManagementSep 2022Jan 2023Oversaw 31 programs and 568 infrastructure projects.
AnatelRegulation SpecialistApr 2023Jun 2023Evaluation of strategic programs and evidence-based regulation.
AnatelCommissioner’s AdvisorJun 2023Jan 2024Economic, governance and strategic regulatory advice.
AnatelHead of Technical Advisory (Ceadi)Jan 2024Oct 2024Led approximately USD 1.2 million and 30 strategic projects.
Chamber of DeputiesSenior Legislative AdvisorDec 2024PresentLegislative oversight, integrity, AI and evidence-based accountability.
FGVInternational Executive MBAMay 2006Dec 2007Strategic management and information systems.
UC IrvineM.A. in Social EcologySep 2017Dec 2020Structural modelling of corruption and institutional trust.
UC IrvinePh.D. in Social EcologySep 2017Mar 2022Procurement-fraud detection using latent class analysis.

Career timeline

02

Book

Governança em Tempo Real ("Real-Time Governance"), published by Editora JusPodivm. Brazil needs to move beyond governance by intuition and build evidence-based governance capable of turning integrity, data, AI and evaluation into measurable public capacity.

Cover of “Governança em Tempo Real”

About the book

An original argument for why technology, controls and good intentions are not enough to govern well. The book brings together a career in parliamentary oversight, public integrity, data and applied artificial intelligence into one continuous argument, not a collection of essays.

Launch

The book launch takes place on 22 October 2026 (Thursday), at 7 pm, at Livraria Leitura, Terraço Shopping (Sudoeste), Brasília: an evening of conversation and book signing. Sales on the night are exclusively at the bookshop.

Watch the book presentation

03

Research

Applied research on integrity, governance and decision intelligence, designed to be usable by public institutions.

Selected research and public work

Research agenda

Integrity and procurement analytics. Identifying latent supplier typologies and risk patterns in public procurement to guide audit prioritization when fraud labels are sparse.

Causal inference for reforms. Estimating the effect of anti-corruption and institutional reforms on governance and development outcomes using counterfactual designs.

Corruption and trust. Modeling the mutual causality between corruption experience, corruption perception and institutional confidence.

Oversight analytics. Measuring legislative attention and executive responsiveness through text-as-data analysis of parliamentary information requests.

Peer-reviewed publication

Alencar, E. C. N., & Jackson-Green, B. (2021). Applying Synthetic Control Method to estimate the impact of the Lava Jato operation on the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil. Journal of White-Collar and Corporate Crime. DOI: 10.1177/2631309X211017874

Articles and newsletters

Alencar, E. C. N. (2026, Spring). Evidence-based anti-corruption oversight: stop counting activity, start measuring consequences. The White Collar Times, official newsletter of the American Society of Criminology Division of White-Collar and Corporate Crime.

Under review

Formal Replies, Substantive Evasion: Executive Responsiveness to Parliamentary Oversight Requests in Brazil. Under review at Public Integrity. Dataset: 13,042 request–response pairs, Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, 2019–2024.

Working papers and work in preparation

  • Evasion as a Signal: Executive Responsiveness to Parliamentary Oversight Requests as a Diagnostic Tool for State Capture. Working paper proposal for a Journal of Financial Crime special issue.
  • Latent Supplier Typologies and Procurement Fraud Risk: Evidence from Brazilian Federal Procurement Microdata. In preparation, Fraud Research Group collaboration track.
  • Collusion detection in public procurement: integrating Latent Class Analysis and machine-learning red flags. In preparation.
  • Open Innovation for Sustainable Development Goals (Nova Science Publishers). Chapter proposal accepted; chapter in preparation.

Conference papers and presentations

Accepted, forthcoming

Presented

  • Formal Replies, Substantive Evasion. American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, Chicago, November 2026.
  • Digital Finance and Cyber Risk Oversight. American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, Chicago, November 2026.
  • The AI-Powered Parliamentary Oversight Auditing System (with Arthur Leite). Extended abstract accepted 20 July 2026; XIV Research and Extension Conference, CEFOR, Chamber of Deputies, 3–4 December 2026.
  • Anti-corruption reforms in Brazil, Kenya and Rwanda: assessing the impact on education outcomes (SDG 4). American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, Washington DC, November 2025.
  • Bridging Digital Transformation and Sustainability: overcoming governance challenges for green policy implementation. American Society of Criminology Annual Meeting, Washington DC, November 2025.
  • Detecting fraud in price registration systems. 50th National Meeting of Economics (ANPEC), Fortaleza, 2022.
  • Allaire, M., & Alencar, E. (2018). Trends in water rate structures to encourage conservation: evidence from California. AGU Fall Meeting, Washington DC.

Theses and dissertations

  • PhD dissertation (University of California, Irvine, 2021; degree conferred 18 March 2022). Assessing the potential for detecting fraud in Brazilian public procurement using Latent Class Analysis.
  • MA thesis (University of California, Irvine, 2020). Applying Structural Equation Modeling to analyze the mutual causality between corruption and trust and the impact of Lava Jato: evidence from Brazil and Mexico.

Policy and practice outputs

  • Governança em Tempo Real: Evidência, Integridade e Inteligência Artificial para Reconstruir a Capacidade Pública. Book manuscript in production, 2026.
  • The Supreme Court judges one of its own. Analysis of the Brazilian Supreme Court's extraordinary session of 15 September 2026 on Petition 16,662 (Banco Master case), examining whether the Court live-tested its own self-adjudication mechanism, over nearly eight hours, when the person under investigation is one of the Constitution's guardians. Policy brief, 2026.
  • From administrative burden to risk-based regulation: latent class analysis and regulatory discontinuities in Latin American and Caribbean public procurement. IDB technical concept note, 2026 (in Spanish).
  • Principais achados relacionados aos desembolsos de convênios e patrocínios da Itaipu Binacional. Parliamentary Front for Oversight, Integrity and Transparency (FIT), 2 April 2025.
  • The impact of Lava Jato on corruption and trust: evidence from Brazil. Policy brief, 2020.
  • Caderno Vozes da Classe Média: Classe Média e Emprego Assalariado. Secretariat of Strategic Affairs, 2013.
  • Gestão de pessoas aplicada ao coaching, in Coaching e Mentoring: Foco na Excelência. Sermais, 2014.
  • Política industrial, acompanhamento e análise, issues 21, 22, 23 and 24. Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea), 2003–2004.

04

Policy briefs

Short, evidence-based briefs that turn research and institutional experience into options for public decision-makers. Each item opens the document directly.

Policy briefs

Policy brief · 2026

O Supremo julga um dos seus

An institutional analysis of the Brazilian Supreme Court’s extraordinary session of 15 September 2026 concerning Petition 16,662.

PublishedDocument language: PT
Open document ↗

05

Tools & Data

Research that stays in a PDF does not change an institution. These are the working artifacts: pipelines, datasets and dashboards built to be used by oversight bodies, journalists and public managers.

30,304contracts
R$ 59.2bnvalue screened
32tests
13,042request–reply pairs

Tools with a public evidence trail

Applied system · 2026

Painéis públicos da Frente Parlamentar FIT

Transparency panels of the Parliamentary Front for Oversight, Integrity and Transparency (FIT): voluntary transfers, Pix budget amendments, authorities’ agendas, and Itaipu Binacional agreements and sponsorships. Institutional work led technically by Eduardo Alencar.

PublishedDocument language: PT
Open document ↗

AI-Powered Parliamentary Oversight Auditing System (2026)

An LLM-based pipeline, co-designed with Arthur Leite, that scores Executive replies to parliamentary information requests on five dimensions: completeness, objectivity, timeliness, evidence quality and irregularity signals. It integrates Airtable metadata, local PDF and text extraction, Claude API analysis, validation gates, legal-instrument recommendations and automated Markdown, DOCX and PDF outputs.

Why it matters: oversight is usually measured by whether an answer arrived, not by whether it answered. This separates formal compliance from substantive engagement.

Stack: Python · pdfplumber · pyairtable · Anthropic API · python-docx · reportlab · Airtable

RICs 2019–2024 dataset

13,042 request–response pairs from the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies, with response times, delays and substantive-completeness measures. Underpins the Public Integrity manuscript, the MSCA BEYOND proposal, the Journal of Financial Crime working paper and both ASC 2026 presentations.

Radar Aberto de Integridade em Compras Públicas (2026)

A public-procurement risk dashboard built on Brazilian open data for the Office of the Comptroller General's 2nd Open Data Reuse Contest. Covers 30,304 contracts and roughly BRL 59.2 billion, with 32 automated tests.

Five views: overview, attention map, suppliers, agencies, and a methods section. The design deliberately separates the attention index from the strength of the evidence, always shows denominators, includes cases with no signals, and closes every case with a human verification script.

Status: completed 18 July 2026. Contest submission pending; deadline 11 September 2026. This is a submission, not an award.

FIT public dashboards

Public transparency dashboards built for the Parliamentary Front for Oversight, Integrity and Transparency: voluntary federal transfers, PIX budget amendments, authorities' official agendas, and Itaipu Binational agreements and sponsorships.

Shared Data Lake for congressional offices

An initiative to integrate data assets across congressional offices for oversight, legislative monitoring, communications and strategic decision-making.

06

Writing

Short bilingual essays translating research and institutional experience into usable analysis on integrity, transparency and evidence-based decision-making in the public sector.

4,943LinkedIn connections (Sep 2026)
5,096LinkedIn followers (Jul 2026)
50,507impressions (Jul 2026)
93+articles and posts published

Newsletter

A weekly bilingual newsletter (Portuguese and English) on public integrity, artificial intelligence in government, oversight and state capacity.

Subscribe on LinkedIn

Themes

Public-sector AI and digital governance. AI governance in Brazil, the neutrality fallacy, risk assessment for public-sector AI, algorithmic bias in implementation, the five-layer AI stack and cybersecurity, quantum and cloud dependence.

Integrity and anti-corruption. Integrity analytics for procurement fraud detection, whistleblower silence and game theory, corruption-perception indicators, big data for anti-corruption authorities, the role of public servants in compliance, social security governance failures.

Evidence-based policy. Revocation analysis, evaluating reforms, Difference-in-Differences explained for practitioners, latent class analysis, public-workforce performance, education and evaluation.

Digital ecosystems and inclusion. GovTech in the Global South, EdTech and educational equity, decentralized web and the Solid protocol, industrial change and digital inclusion, generative AI and analytical rigor.

Essays are published on LinkedIn in English and Portuguese.

07

Teaching

Current

Unyleya University, Brasília — Lecturer, 01/2024–present

Graduate courses: Leadership; Public Governance; Artificial Intelligence.

Gran Faculdade, Brasília — Lecturer, 01/2024–present

Infrastructure regulation in telecommunications, transport and sanitation; concession models; public-private partnerships; artificial intelligence, cryptography and regulation.

National School of Public Administration (ENAP), Brasília — Lecturer, 01/2023–present

Public governance for results.

Previous

University of California, Irvine — Teaching Assistant, 2018–2020

Undergraduate: Introduction to Criminology, Law and Society; Statistical Analysis in Social Ecology; Research Design. Graduate: Data Analysis 1 and 2. Summer: White-Collar Crime.

UPIS – Faculdades Integradas, Brasília — Lecturer, 2014

Graduate program: Strategic Management and Business Process Management.

Anatel and Voyager Business Technology, Brasília — Instructor, 2005–2009

Project management certification and ITIL Foundation.

Student evaluations

Selected evaluations from University of California, Irvine courses (2018–2020) highlight accessibility, clarity in teaching statistical software, and thorough exam preparation. Full compilation available on request.

08

CV

Education

  • PhD in Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine — 09/2017–03/2022. Degree conferred 18 March 2022. GPA 3.95/4.0.
  • MA in Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine — 09/2017–12/2020. GPA 3.95/4.0.
  • International Executive MBA, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Brasília — 2006–2007.
  • BS in Economic Sciences, Universidade de Brasília — 03/1999–06/2003.
  • Graduate Certificate in Business, Fundação Getúlio Vargas, Brasília — 2002.

Honors and awards

  • Best Pitch, Digital Transformation for Sustainability, ITU and UNU-MERIT, 2024
  • Outstanding Student Paper Award, American Society of Criminology, 2022
  • Graduate Division Completion Fellowship, UCI, 2021
  • School of Social Ecology Merit-based Award, UCI, 2019–2023
  • Miguel Velez Fellowship, 2019 and 2021
  • Master of Public Policy Fellowship, 2017

Certifications

Digital Transformation for Sustainability (ITU / UNU-MERIT, 2024) · UCI Mentoring Excellence Program (2021) · PRINCE2 Practitioner (2014) · Global Change Agents, Harvard University (2012) · ITIL Foundation (2011) · COBIT Foundation (2011) · Project Management Professional, PMP (2004)

Professional and voluntary service

  • Member, Fraud Research Group, Aston University — 2026–present
  • Subject Matter Expert, IRU Working Group 5: Intergenerational Procurement for People-Centred Cities — 2026–present
  • Contributor, U4SSC Digital Development Goals — 2025–present
  • Reviewer, Journal of White Collar and Corporate Crime — 2025–present
  • Reviewer, Academia against Corruption in the Americas — 2025–present
  • Scientific and Editorial Board, Scientia et Ratio Magazine — 2024–present
  • Fiscal Council, Project Management Institute, DF Chapter — 2005–2008

Research experience

Center for the Study of Democracy Fellow, University of California, Irvine — 2019–2021

Automated transcription and text analysis of US state committee hearings on electronic nicotine delivery systems, with Dr. Graeme Boushey. Built a reproducible pipeline for roughly 100,000 minutes of audio and video, with human and hybrid benchmarks, batch speech-to-text processing, confidence scoring, speaker identification and structural topic modeling.

Campus Summer Intern, University of California, Irvine — 2018

Drought resiliency in California using econometric methods, with Dr. Maura Allaire.

Download the full CV (PDF)

09

Contact

Brasília, Brazil · Open to relocate

- Email: eduardocna@gmail.com · ealencar@uci.edu

- LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/eduardocna

- Google Scholar: scholar.google.com/citations?user=vJ12isgAAAAJ

- ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-9218-1798

- X: @eduardo_cna

Open to collaboration on public integrity, procurement analytics, oversight measurement and responsible AI in government.